The 2025 WNBA Finals tip off with the Phoenix Mercury facing the reigning champions, the Las Vegas Aces, in a historic best-of-seven series. Both teams bring contrasting stories: the Aces aim for a third straight title, while the Mercury have surged from underdog status to title contenders.
Key Takeaways
- The Aces seek a three-peat after winning in 2022 and 2023
- Phoenix Mercury rebuilt their roster and shocked favorites to reach the Finals
- A’ja Wilson (Aces) and Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) are frontrunners for Finals MVP
- For the first time, the WNBA Finals will feature a best-of-seven format
- Betting markets narrowly favor the Aces, but momentum may be on Phoenix’s side
Mercury’s Remarkable Rebuild
The Mercury defied preseason expectations to reach the Finals for the first time since 2021. They overhauled their roster, bringing in big names like Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, while filling out their bench with international talent and experienced veterans. Despite injuries to star players early in the season, Phoenix gelled and improved defensively, gaining traction as a rebounding force and executing strongly in crunch time. Eliminating both Minnesota and New York in their playoff run, the Mercury are riding their best form of the year.
Las Vegas Aces: Experience and Resilience
The Aces are no strangers to the Finals stage, returning with much of their core and coach Becky Hammon at the helm. Star forward A’ja Wilson, fresh off MVP and Defensive Player of the Year accolades, continues to anchor a battle-tested lineup. Although Vegas trailed expectations during the regular season’s midpoint, a strong finish and tough playoff wins signal their championship resilience. However, their route to the Finals wasn’t smooth, grinding through five games against Indiana and surviving a first-round scare.
Betting Odds and MVP Race
Bookmakers have installed the Las Vegas Aces as slight favorites for Game 1 and the series overall, with spreads hovering near 2.5 points. Key betting trends:
- Game 1 has a projected high total (159.5), reflecting both teams’ up-tempo style
- The Mercury are considered attractive underdogs and offer value for an outright series win, especially if they split the initial games in Las Vegas
- Alyssa Thomas is a top pick for Finals MVP if Phoenix prevails, while A’ja Wilson leads MVP odds for the Aces
- Bettors are leaning toward the over for Game 1, anticipating a fast pace and plenty of scoring
X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
Both squads feature stars who have squared off in recent postseasons. The Mercury’s improved fourth-quarter play could be a difference-maker, especially as their chemistry continues to build. Meanwhile, the Aces rely on their playoff-tested roster and home-court advantage. The dynamic between Alyssa Thomas versus Wilson inside, as well as contributions from role players off the bench, are sure to be pivotal.
What’s at Stake
This Finals matchup not only marks a new era with the best-of-seven format but also spotlights the WNBA’s growing prominence, with viewership and betting interest on the rise. For the Aces, it’s legacy; for the Mercury, it’s vindication after a daring roster overhaul.
Basketball fans can expect a tightly-contested, high-stakes series where momentum, depth, and superstar performances will determine this season’s champion.
