NFL Media's Bucky Brooks has broken down three things the Silver and Black need to do to beat their AFC West foe on Sunday. Winning in the NFL often comes down to the turnover battle and the big-play competition. Games frequently come down to which team dominates in those categories, despite all the other statistics coaches cite at the podium during weekly press conferences. The turnover battle is the biggest deciding factor: teams that win the turnover margin win about 78% of their games, according to a Harvard study conducted in 2025. Teams with a plus-one turnover differential win 69.4% of games, plus-two win 82.3% and plus-three win 91.4%.
After the Chargers lost their Week 1 game to the Arizona Cardinals, partly because of their minus-two turnover differential (excluding the blocked punt and three turnover downs), the Raiders could notch their second win by taking care of the ball against a reckless squad that turns it over frequently. If Kirk Cousins and Co. can avoid the big mistake that gives the Chargers an extra possession, points or prime field position, the Raiders can wait for their division rival to implode with a critical error that flips the game's momentum.
While winning the turnover battle matters, the Raiders must also win the big-play competition to walk out of SoFi Stadium with a win. Big plays, or "explosives," are runs of at least 10 yards and passes of 20 yards or more. The explosive plays the offense produces and the defense allows will determine the game's outcome.
Last week, the Chargers gave up five big plays, leading directly to 16 points, while producing six big plays that resulted in 14 points. Despite generating more explosive plays, turnovers and failed fourth-down conversions (turnover on downs) negated their big-play advantage and gift-wrapped the win to their opponents.
Against Miami, the Raiders tallied five explosive plays (four runs of at least 10 yards and one 20-yard-plus pass play) that led directly to 27 points. The offense scored on every drive featuring a big play, confirming the correlation between big plays and points in the NFL. Although the defense surrendered six big plays (two 10-yard-plus runs and four 20-yard-plus passes) and 13 points off the explosives, the Raiders defense made fewer egregious errors than their opponent and earned the win.
Given the impact of turnovers and big plays, the Raiders must protect the ball and limit the explosives on defense. If the Raiders can avoid giving the Chargers extra possessions, prime field position and points on their miscues, the Silver and Black can go on the road and walk out a winner against a bitter division rival.
It's no secret that Klint Kubiak wants to run the football to control the clock and game tempo. The offensive wizard has built an offense with the talent to use those tactics to win at home or on the road. The grind-it
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